Overview

  • Increased oil production, rising oil prices, modest improvements in exchange rate policy, and federal government external commercial borrowings helped to increase foreign currency inflows into the Nigerian economy in 2017.
  • However, Nigeria's fiscal consolidation remains slow, while economic growth is improving at a slower pace than we previously envisaged.
  • We are therefore affirming our 'B/B' ratings on Nigeria.
  • The outlook is stable.

Rating Action

On March 16, 2018, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B/B' long- and short-term 
sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria. The outlook is stable. At the same time, 
we affirmed our long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings at 
'ngBBB/ngA-2'.

Outlook

The stable outlook signals our assessment that non-oil-sector improvements 
could support higher economic growth and fiscal revenues over the next 12 
months.

We may lower the ratings if we don't see the significant fall in fiscal 
deficits that we expect in our base case.

We could raise our ratings on Nigeria if we see much higher economic growth 
prospects than our base case or if Nigeria's external liquidity indicator 
improves, perhaps due to further accumulation of international reserves 
alongside an extension of external debt maturities.

Rationale

The ratings on Nigeria are supported by moderate external indebtedness and a 
relatively low general government debt stock. However, debt-servicing costs 
are high.

The ratings remain constrained by our view of the country's low economic 
wealth, weak institutional capacity, lower real GDP per capita trend growth 
rates than peers at similar development levels, and low monetary policy 
credibility.

Institutional and Economic Profile: Economic performance is still weak, with trend growth below peers
  • Nigeria's current pace of economic growth remains low relative to peers with similar wealth levels.
  • Political decision-making in Nigeria can be unpredictable, since government institutions are relatively weak.
  • Despite underlying tensions and complexities, Nigeria is a democratic system that has weathered a transfer of power between different political parties.
Nigeria is a sizable producer of hydrocarbons. The oil sector's direct share 
of nominal GDP is officially estimated at about 10%, but oil and gas account 
for over 90% of exports and at least half of fiscal revenues.

In 2017, Nigeria emerged from recession. The economy grew, in real terms, by 
0.8% in 2017, compared with a 1.6% contraction in 2016. The recovery is being 
driven by improving oil prices, increasing foreign currency inflows, and 
strong agricultural sector performance. Oil production also stabilized at 
about 1.9 million-2.1 million barrels per day, after disruptions in early 
2017. In the near term, we estimate that the economy will grow at 2.4% of GDP 
in 2018 (compared with our previous forecast of 3%) and will average 2.8% in 
2018-2021. Excluding agriculture, the non-oil economy has yet to fully respond 
to the improving conditions, with modest growth of less than 1% in 2017. Thus, 
we expect non-oil-sector improvements will support our forecasts for higher 
economic growth. However, real per capita GDP growth of negative 0.19% (which 
we estimate by using 10-year weighted-average growth) remains well below that 
of peers with similar wealth levels. Nigeria has significant infrastructure 
and energy shortfalls and low income levels, with GDP per capita estimated at 
US$1,800 in 2018.

We observe that Nigeria is taking steps to improve its governance and 
strengthen the business environment. The latest World Bank Ease of Doing 
Business Indicators show Nigeria improving 24 places to No. 145 of 190 
countries. In our view, political decision-making in Nigeria can be 
unpredictable. We view government institutions as relatively weak, with slow 
decision-making on policy issues. Fiscal budgets are frequently passed well 
after the year has begun, which delays the government's responsiveness to 
economic challenges. We also view decision-making as largely centralized in 
the person of the president, although we note that the federal system of 
government helps to redistribute wealth and spread power to some extent.

Nigeria has a democratic system with a tested transfer of power between 
different political parties, last witnessed at the 2015 general elections. The 
next presidential elections are due in 2019. The presidential candidates are 
not clear at this stage but the dominant parties will remain the ruling 
coalition of the All Progressives Congress and the opposition People's 
Democratic Party. While security risks have slightly abated compared with the 
last two years, we still see sporadic attacks in the North East owing to Boko 
Haram.

Flexibility and Performance Profile: An improved external position and low general government debt is juxtaposed against sizable fiscal deficits and high debt-servicing costs
  • Nigeria's external position has improved, owing to higher oil prices and production volumes, modest improvements in exchange rate policy, and federal government external commercial borrowings that are helping to increase foreign currency inflows and have allowed the central bank to build external buffers.
  • Nigeria still operates multiple exchange rates, which we consider a managed float with a short track record, while foreign exchange restrictions on some key items remain for an extended period.
  • The country has a relatively low level of general government debt but high debt-servicing costs.
Although oil revenues support the economy when prices are high, we view them 
as exposing Nigeria to significant volatility, in terms of trade and 
government revenues. Rising oil prices, a relatively new market-determined 
exchange rate window introduced in April 2017, and government external 
borrowings are helping to increase foreign currency inflows into the economy, 
allowing the central bank to increase foreign-exchange reserve buffers.

We estimate that the current account surplus increased further to 2% of GDP in 
2017 compared with 1% in 2016 and an average of 1.6% of GDP in 2018-2021. The 
recovery in oil prices and production have helped strengthen the trade 
balance. In January 2018, we revised our oil price assumptions (see "S&P 
Global Ratings Raises 2018 Brent And WTI Oil Price Assumptions," published 
Jan. 18, 2018, on RatingsDirect). Higher oil prices in 2018 could support a 
further current account surplus strengthening closer to 3% of GDP for 2018. We 
assume a lower oil price in 2019, however, and gradually rising imports along 
with foreign currency supply, which leads us to expect only limited current 
account strengthening over 2019-2021. The central bank has been able to 
increase its external buffers to close to seven months import cover compared 
with five months cover three years ago.

Improving current account balances and external buffers have led us to 
forecast lower ratios of narrow net external debt to current account receipts 
(CARs) and of gross external financing needs to CARs plus usable reserves. We 
now estimate gross external financing needs will average close to 100% of CARs 
plus usable reserves during 2018-2021. We expect the government's external 
financing needs to be covered by a combination of credit lines from 
multilateral partners, and from the international capital markets. The 
government has been able to issue eurobonds to the value of US$5.5 billion in 
the past six months. We now estimate narrow net external debt (external debt 
minus liquid external assets) will only increase to 36% of CARs in 2021 from 
26% this year.

We have revised our 2017 general-government fiscal deficit estimate to above 
5% of GDP relative to our 3.5% of GDP assumption in September 2017, based on 
preliminary outturn. We now estimate the annual change in net general 
government debt will average 3.6% of GDP in 2018-2021, compared with 3% of GDP 
previously. The weaker expectations are based on slower non oil revenue growth 
compared with budget, transfers by federal government to the lower levels of 
government remaining at a high level, a faster implementation of capital 
budget spending, and overall still relatively high deficits of states and 
local governments. Despite rising oil related revenues, fiscal adjustment 
challenges remain in 2018.

The states and local governments are still receiving substantial transfers and 
running deficits that we estimate will remain at around 1% of GDP until 2019. 
Our overall general government deficit projections exclude the clearance of 
fiscal arrears to contractors, suppliers, and lower levels of government. If a 
proposed plan to clear fiscal arrears, estimated between 2% and 3% of GDP, is 
approved by the national assembly in 2018, through the issuance of 
naira-denominated debt securities, it could increase our deficit and debt 
projections by the same margin.

Overall, we forecast that Nigeria's gross general government debt stock 
(consolidating debt at the federal, state, and local government levels) will 
average 27% of GDP for 2018-2021, comparing favorably with peer countries' 
ratios. We also anticipate that general government debt, net of liquid assets, 
will average 18% of GDP in 2018-2021.

We include debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON; around 
5% of 2018 GDP)--created to resolve the nonperforming loan (NPL) assets of the 
Nigerian banks--in our calculation of gross and net debt. Over 70% of 
government debt is denominated in naira.

Despite the relatively low government debt stock, general government 
debt-servicing costs as a percentage of revenues are high and have increased 
in recent years from below 10% in 2014 to our projection of over 20%, on 
average, in 2018-2021. The central government alone has debt servicing costs 
of close to 50% of revenues, which in our opinion limits fiscal flexibility. 
The steep increase in the ratio is due to a combination declining oil revenues 
since 2014 and higher borrowing costs in the domestic market. The government 
has borrowed externally to fund maturing short-term domestic debt obligations, 
which are costly, as a way to reduce borrowing costs.

In April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced a new exchange 
rate window, the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing Mechanism 
(Nafex), commonly known as the New Investors and Exporters Foreign Exchange 
Window. The new window adds to the interbank market, and the two have become 
the main exchange rate windows utilized in foreign currency trading. The 
interbank market window trades at around $1 to NGN326-NGN345, while the new 
foreign investors exchange window trades at $1 to NGN360. However, Nigeria 
still maintains foreign exchange restrictions on some current and capital 
transactions, including import restrictions on 41 categories of goods.

Following years of heightened risks, operating conditions for the Nigerian 
banking sector are improving due to the gradual economic recovery, rising oil 
prices, increasing U.S. dollar supply in the banking system, and Nigeria's 
successful tapping of the Eurobond market. The majority of banks have overcome 
their short-term liquidity challenges. We expect muted loan growth as well as 
gradual improvements in asset quality and profitability, with top tier banks 
faring better than the sector average. Capital adequacy remains exposed to 
unexpected weakening of the naira and weak internal capital generation because 
of the potential provisioning shortfalls and pressure on net interest margins 
on the back of the federal government conversion of part of its short-term 
debt into longer dated U.S. dollar-denominated debt. We understand that banks 
have received guidance to report their year-end 2017 results with a naira 
exchange rate at about $1 to NGN330. In addition, the CBN has restricted banks 
from distributing dividends if their NPLs ratio exceeds the 5% regulatory 
limit. We may see some banks convert their banking license to a national one 
to meet the lower minimum capital adequacy ratio. The introduction of the 1% 
additional buffer has been suspended for now to avoid putting further pressure 
on banks.

Inflation remains high. In December 2017, annual consumer price inflation 
accelerated to 16.5% compared with 15.7% in December 2016. The rising trend 
has been attributed to the June 2016 devaluation and structural factors such 
as increases in the cost of food, electricity, transport, and inputs, as well 
as low industrial activity. Inflation started falling in late 2017 and the 
trend is likely to continue in 2018. In February 2018, inflation was recorded 
at 14.3% suggesting a downward trend in line with our base case. Consequently, 
we expect that inflation for 2018 will move to 12% and slowly fall toward 
single digits through 2021.

Key Statistics

Table 1

Nigeria Selected Indicators
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Selected Indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (%)
Nominal GDP (bil. LC) 72,600 81,010 90,137 95,178 102,575 114,907 125,901 136,162 150,064 166,777
Nominal GDP (bil. $) 461 515 542 480 389 343 349 381 426 480
GDP per capita (000s $) 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Real GDP growth 4.3 5.4 6.3 2.7 (1.6) 0.8 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0
Real GDP per capita growth 1.5 2.6 3.5 (0.0) (4.2) (1.8) (0.3) 0.3 0.3 0.3
Real investment growth 2.6 7.9 13.4 (1.3) (5.0) (4) (1.5) (1.0) 4.0 4.5
Investment/GDP 14.9 14.9 15.8 15.5 15.3 17.0 18.1 17.1 16.6 15.8
Savings/GDP 19.0 18.8 16.0 12.3 16.0 18.7 20.9 18.5 17.8 16.9
Exports/GDP 31.4 18.0 18.4 10.7 9.2 13.2 15.9 13.7 12.6 11.6
Real exports growth (3.6) (21.7) 24.1 0.1 11.5 28.0 15.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Unemployment rate 27.4 24.7 24.3 29.2 35.2 27.0 27.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
EXTERNAL INDICATORS (%)
Current account balance/GDP 4.1 3.9 0.2 (3.2) 0.7 1.7 2.8 1.4 1.2 1.1
Current account balance/CARs 15.8 16.6 1.2 (21.4) 4.5 8.8 12.4 6.7 6.6 6.1
CARs/GDP 26.1 23.5 20.1 15.0 15.6 19.9 22.7 20.1 18.9 17.5
Trade balance/GDP 8.9 8.5 3.9 (1.3) (0.1) 1.6 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.8
Net FDI/GDP 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Net portfolio equity inflow/GDP 1.8 0.6 (0.3) (0.4) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gross external financing needs/CARs plus usable reserves 78.6 77.7 95.1 123.7 118.8 114.7 102.5 106.9 108.0 109.6
Narrow net external debt/CARs (23.7) (11.9) 2.4 24.8 37.7 32.1 26.3 33.1 35.6 36.3
Narrow net external debt/CAPs (28.1) (14.2) 2.4 20.4 39.4 35.2 30.0 35.5 38.1 38.7
Net external liabilities/CARs (3.8) 12.9 31.9 57.9 88.6 81.5 70.7 81.4 84.6 86.3
Net external liabilities/CAPs (4.5) 15.5 32.3 47.7 92.8 89.4 80.6 87.3 90.6 91.9
Short-term external debt by remaining maturity/CARs 18.1 24.8 36.6 66.5 84.7 74.1 64.3 71.9 71.4 71.2
Usable reserves/CAPs (months) 4.3 5.7 5.2 5.1 6.5 5.8 6.6 7.0 6.8 6.5
Usable reserves (mil. $) 47,548 46,253 37,493 31,335 30,031 38,308 41,802 42,183 42,396 43,356
FISCAL INDICATORS (%, General government)
Balance/GDP (0.3) (2.4) (1.8) (3.5) (3.9) (5.8) (4.0) (3.5) (2.5) (2.3)
Change in net debt/GDP 5.2 2.9 (0.3) 0.2 3.0 5.8 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.3
Primary balance/GDP 0.7 (1.4) (0.8) (2.4) (2.7) (4.3) (2.4) (1.8) (0.7) (0.6)
Revenue/GDP 14.3 11.0 10.5 7.6 5.6 6.0 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5
Expenditures/GDP 14.7 13.4 12.3 11.1 9.5 11.8 11.4 10.9 10.0 9.8
Interest /revenues 7.0 9.2 9.4 14.7 22.3 25.2 21.7 23.5 24.0 23.0
Debt/GDP 18.5 18.2 16.7 17.2 20.6 25.1 26.9 28.3 28.2 27.6
Debt/Revenue 129.3 164.8 158.6 227.1 371.6 418.2 363.4 382.9 375.7 368.4
Net debt/GDP 10.3 12.2 10.6 10.3 12.6 17.0 19.5 21.5 22.0 22.1
Liquid assets/GDP 8.2 6.0 6.1 7.0 8.1 8.1 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.5
MONETARY INDICATORS (%)
CPI growth 12.2 8.5 8.1 9.0 15.7 16.5 12.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
GDP deflator growth 9.3 5.9 4.7 2.9 9.5 11.1 7.0 5.0 7.0 7.9
Exchange rate, year-end (LC/$) 157.33 157.26 183.45 199.30 315.25 360.50 360.00 355.00 350.00 345.00
Banks' claims on resident non-gov't sector growth 6.6 16.7 27.0 2.1 20.9 (0.1) 8.0 12.0 15.0 15.0
Banks' claims on resident non-gov't sector/GDP 12.4 13.0 14.8 14.3 16.1 14.3 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.8
Foreign currency share of claims by banks on residents N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Foreign currency share of residents' bank deposits 20.8 24.7 25.9 21.9 24.9 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0
Real effective exchange rate growth (11.4) (6.8) (6.3) 1.9 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Savings is defined as investment plus the current account surplus (deficit). Investment is defined as expenditure on capital goods, including plant, equipment, and housing, plus the change in inventories. Banks are other depository corporations other than the central bank, whose liabilities are included in the national definition of broad money. Gross external financing needs are defined as current account payments plus short-term external debt at the end of the prior year plus nonresident deposits at the end of the prior year plus long-term external debt maturing within the year. Narrow net external debt is defined as the stock of foreign and local currency public- and private- sector borrowings from nonresidents minus official reserves minus public-sector liquid assets held by nonresidents minus financial-sector loans to, deposits with, or investments in nonresident entities. A negative number indicates net external lending. LC--Local currency. CARs--Current account receipts. FDI--Foreign direct investment. CAPs--Current account payments. The data and ratios above result from S&P Global Ratings' own calculations, drawing on national as well as international sources, reflecting S&P Global Ratings' independent view on the timeliness, coverage, accuracy, credibility, and usability of available information.

Ratings Score Snapshot

Table 2

Ratings Score Snapshot
Key rating factors
Institutional assessment 5
Economic assessment 6
External assessment 4
Fiscal assessment: flexibility and performance 5
Fiscal assessment: debt burden 4
Monetary assessment 5
S&P Global Ratings' analysis of sovereign creditworthiness rests on its assessment and scoring of five key rating factors: (i) institutional assessment; (ii) economic assessment; (iii) external assessment; (iv) the average of fiscal flexibility and performance, and debt burden; and (v) monetary assessment. Each of the factors is assessed on a continuum spanning from 1 (strongest) to 6 (weakest). S&P Global Ratings' "Sovereign Rating Methodology," published on Dec18, 2017, details how we derive and combine the scores and then derive the sovereign foreign currency rating. In accordance with S&P Global Ratings' sovereign ratings methodology, a change in score does not in all cases lead to a change in the rating, nor is a change in the rating necessarily predicated on changes in one or more of the scores. In determining the final rating the committee can make use of the flexibility afforded by §15 and §§126-128 of the rating methodology.

Related Criteria

Related Research

  • Sovereign Ratings History – March 6, 2018
  • Nigerian Banks' Troubled Past Continues To Cast A Shadow On A Brighter Future, January 30, 2018
  • S&P Global Ratings Raises 2018 Brent And WTI Oil Price Assumptions, January 18, 2018
  • Global Sovereign Rating Trends 2018 - January 10, 2018
  • Sovereign Risk Indicators – December 14, 2017. An interactive version is also available at http://www.spratings.com/sri
  • Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Nigeria - November 10, 2017
  • Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2016 Annual Sovereign Default Study And Rating Transitions - April 3, 2017
  • Credit Trends: 2016 Sovereign Ratings Update: Outlook And CreditWatch Resolutions – April 18, 2017
  • Federal Republic of Nigeria Ratings Affirmed At 'B/B'; Outlook Stable - September 15, 2017
  • Sovereign Debt 2017: Global Borrowing To Drop By 4% To US$6.8 Trillion – February 23, 2017
In accordance with our relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee 
was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with 
sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and 
understanding of the methodology applicable (see 'Related Criteria And 
Research'). At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the 
information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been 
distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to 
make an informed decision.

After the analysts gave opening remarks and explained the recommendation, the 
Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues in accordance with 
the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were 
considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.

The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected in the 
Ratings Score Snapshot above.

The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate 
his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure 
consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the 
rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The 
weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this 
rating action (see 'Related Criteria and Research').

Ratings List

Ratings Affirmed

Nigeria
 Sovereign Credit Rating
  Foreign and Local Currency            B/Stable/B
 Nigeria National Scale                 ngBBB/--/ngA-2
 Transfer & Convertibility Assessment   B

Nigeria
 Senior Unsecured
   Foreign currency                     B

Regulatory Disclosures

  • Primary credit analyst: Gardner Rusike, Associate Director
  • Rating Committee Chairperson: Trevor Cullinan, Director
  • Date initial rating assigned: Feb. 6, 2006
  • Date of previous Review: Sept. 15, 2017

Disclaimers

This rating has been determined by a rating committee based solely on the 
committee's independent evaluation of the credit risks and merits of the 
issuer or issue being rated in accordance with S&P Global Ratings' published 
criteria and no part of this rating was influenced by any other business 
activities of S&P Global Ratings.

This credit rating is solicited. The rated entity did participate in the 
credit rating process. S&P Global Ratings did have access to the accounts, 
financial records and other relevant internal, non-public documents of the 
rated entity or a related third party. S&P Global Ratings has used information 
from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee the accuracy, 
adequacy, or completeness of any information used.

Glossary

  • Consumer price index: Index of prices of a representative set of consumer goods regularly bought by a typical household.
  • Current account balance: Exports of goods and services minus imports of the same plus net factor income plus official and private net transfers.
  • Current account receipts (CAR): Proceeds from exports of goods and services plus factor income earned by residents from nonresidents plus official and private transfers to residents from nonresidents.
  • Date initial rating assigned: The date S&P Global Ratings assigned the long-term foreign currency issuer credit rating on the entity.
  • Date of previous review: The date S&P Global Ratings last reviewed the credit rating on the entity.
  • Debt burden assessment: Reflects a sovereign's prospective debt level, as indicated by the general government debt relative to GDP (including assessment of contingent liabilities), the interest cost of the debt relative to general government revenue, and debt structure and funding access.
  • Economic assessment: Based on the analysis of economic structure and growth prospects. Reflects income levels (GDP per capita), economic growth prospects, and economic diversity and volatility.
  • External assessment: Based on the analysis of external liquidity and international investment position as well as the status of a sovereign's currency in international transactions. Reflects a country's ability to obtain funds from abroad necessary to meet its public- and private-sector obligations to nonresidents.
  • Fiscal performance and flexibility assessment: Reflects the sustainability of sovereign's fiscal deficits. Based on the prospective change in general government debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, taking into account long-term trends and a government's fiscal flexibility and vulnerabilities.
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI): Direct investment by nonresidents.
  • GDP per capita: GDP divided by population.
  • General government: Aggregate of the national, regional, and local government sectors, including social security and other defined benefit public-sector pension systems, and excluding intergovernmental transactions.
  • General government debt: Debt incurred by national, regional, and local governments and central bank debt.
  • General government interest: Interest payments on general government debt.
  • General government liquid financial assets: General government deposits in financial institutions (unless the deposits are a source of support to the recipient institution), widely traded securities, plus minority arms-length holdings of incorporated enterprises that are widely traded plus balances of defined-benefit government-run pension plans or social security funds (or stabilization or other freely available funds) that are held in bank deposits, widely traded securities, or other liquid forms.
  • Gross domestic product (GDP): Total market value of goods and services produced by resident factors of production.
  • Gross external financing needs: Current account payments plus short-term external debt at the end of the prior year, including nonresident deposits at the end of the prior year plus long-term external debt maturing within the year.
  • Institutional assessment: An analysis of how a government's institutions and policymaking affect a sovereign's credit fundamentals by delivering sustainable public finances, promoting balanced economic growth, and responding to economic or political shocks. Reflects the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of the sovereign's policymaking and political institutions; transparency and accountability of institutions, data, and processes; the sovereign's debt payment culture; and security risks.
  • Monetary assessment: The extent to which a sovereign's monetary authority can fulfil its mandate while supporting sustainable economic growth and attenuating major economic or financial shocks. Based on the analysis of the sovereign's ability to coordinate monetary policy with fiscal and other economic policies to support sustainable economic growth; the credibility of monetary policy, and the effectiveness of market-oriented monetary mechanisms.
  • Narrow net external debt: Stock of foreign and local currency public- and private-sector borrowings from nonresidents minus official reserves minus public-sector liquid claims on nonresidents minus financial sector loans to, deposits with, or investments in nonresident entities.
  • Net general government debt: General government debt minus general government liquid financial assets.
  • Net external liabilities: Total public- and private-sector liabilities to nonresidents minus total external assets.
  • Official reserves: Monetary authority liquid claims in foreign currency (including gold) on nonresidents.
  • Real GDP per capita: Constant-price per capita GDP.
  • Trade balance: Exports of goods minus imports of goods.
  • Usable reserves: Official reserves minus items not readily available for foreign exchange operations and repayment of external debt.
Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to 
express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed 
to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such 
criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further 
information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of 
RatingsDirect at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action 
can be found on the S&P Global Ratings' public website at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.  Alternatively, call one of the following S&P Global Ratings numbers: 
Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 
20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm 
(46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009.
Primary Credit Analyst:Gardner G Rusike, Johannesburg (27) 11-214-4859;
gardner.rusike@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Ravi Bhatia, London (44) 20-7176-7113;
ravi.bhatia@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Shruti Ramakrishnan, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai
Additional Contact:SovereignEurope;
SovereignEurope@spglobal.com

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-related publications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limited to, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.

To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgment at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use the data or information other than as provided herein, contact S&P Global Ratings, Client Services, 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) 212-438-7280 or by e-mail to: research_request@spglobal.com.