- Following review of the July 21 statement by the European Council (EC), Standard & Poor's has concluded that the proposed restructuring, in the form of an exchange into discount or par bonds or a rollover into 30-year par bonds, of Greek government debt would amount to a selective default under our rating criteria.
- In anticipation of the debt exchange, we have lowered the long-term rating on Greece to 'CC' and we have affirmed the 'C' short-term rating.
- The outlook on the ratings is negative.
- We view the proposed restructuring as one that would amount to a "distressed exchange" under our criteria because, based on public statements by European policymakers, the debt exchange or rollover is likely to result in losses for commercial creditors, and the objective of the debt exchange/rollover is to reduce the risk of a near-term debt payment default. Under our criteria, we characterize a distressed borrower as one that would--in the absence of debt relief--fail to pay its debt on time and in full.
- While no exact date has been announced to initiate Greece's debt restructuring, we understand that it will commence in September 2011 at the earliest.
- Our recovery rating of '4' for Greece remains unchanged, indicating an estimated 30%-50% recovery of principal by bondholders.
On July 27, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Hellenic Republic to 'CC' from 'CCC'. At the same time we affirmed the short-term rating at 'C'. The outlook is negative. Our recovery rating of '4' for Greece remains unchanged, indicating an estimated 30%-50% recovery of principal by bondholders, including on those bonds subject to a 20% reduction in net present value (NPV) as estimated under the Institute for International Finance (IIF) proposal.
Following review of the European Council's (EC's) July 21 statement, Standard & Poor's has concluded that the proposed restructuring of Greek government debt would amount to a selective default under our rating methodology. We view the proposed restructuring as a "distressed exchange" because, based on public statements by European policymakers, it is likely to result in losses for commercial creditors. Moreover, the objective of the debt exchange/rollover is to reduce the risk of a near-term debt payment default and to give the Greek government more time to undertake fiscal consolidation and policy reforms. Under our criteria, we characterize a distressed borrower as one that would--in the absence of debt relief--fail to pay its debt on time and in full. The restructuring proposal put forward by the IIF gives investors the option of exchanging either into discount or par bonds, or rolling over into 30-year par bonds.
- In the debt exchange option, we understand that new, discount bonds would be offered in exchange for existing bonds at 80% of par and would pay investors effective interest rates of 7.17% and 7.69% on the 15-year and 30-year maturities, respectively.
- Alternatively, investors could swap into 30-year bonds at par, which would pay an effective interest rate of 4.6%.
- At the same time, the IIF is proposing a €40 billion debt buyback fund that would aim to repurchase Greek secondary market debt at an average discount of just under 40% of face value.
In our opinion, the terms of both the exchange and rollover options appear unfavorable to investors. The new debt instruments' maturity would extend well beyond the maturity of bonds tendered in the proposed exchange and rollover options, and beyond what Greece could currently issue in the market. We assess the interest rate levels paid on the new bonds as significantly below rates available to buyers in the secondary market. As a consequence, we assess the restructuring as distressed, and we view the terms of the restructuring as offering less value than the promise of the original securities. Under our criteria, this leads us to conclude that the restructuring amounts to a selective default. The purchase of Greek sovereign bonds in the secondary market one at a time would not be viewed by Standard & Poor's as a selective default, as we would view these as transactions entered into voluntarily by both the buyer and the seller. Nevertheless, purchases of debt securities at large discounts to par are an indication of weakened issuer creditworthiness. Moreover, under Standard & Poor's methodology, coordinated bond buybacks at fixed prices could be considered selective defaults. For these reasons, we are downgrading Greece's long-term foreign currency rating to 'CC.' Our recovery rating of '4' for Greece remains unchanged, indicating an estimated 30%-50% recovery of principal by bondholders after taking into account the 20% reduction in NPV likely to occur under the first round of restructuring, as estimated under the IIF proposal. Our recovery rating base-case default scenario for Greece continues to incorporate a second debt restructuring, including considerably higher principal "haircuts" on top of those proposed under the IIF exchange. Under the IIF's accompanying exchange proposal, some of the securities into which investors can swap will be collateralized with 'AAA' rated, zero-coupon bonds. In that case, we will assess if the recovery of principal on 'AAA' collateralized instruments could be significantly higher than that of senior unsecured Greek government bonds, which could then lead to higher issue ratings for the collateralized instruments. Nevertheless, our experience with similar arrangements, such as that for Brady bonds, suggests that the new securities may not be immune to future restructuring and losses, and that recovery may not necessarily be higher than for that of unsecured securities. Our country transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment for Greece, as for all eurozone members, is 'AAA'. A T&C assessment reflects Standard & Poor's view of the likelihood of a sovereign restricting nonsovereign access to foreign exchange needed to satisfy the nonsovereign's debt service obligations. Our T&C assessment for Greece reflects our view that the likelihood of the ECB restricting nonsovereign access to foreign currency needed for debt servicing is extremely low. This reflects the full and open access to foreign currency that holders of euros enjoy, and which we expect to remain the case in the future. Should Greece exit the eurozone (which is not our base-case assumption) and introduce a new local currency, the T&C assessment would be reset to reflect our view of the likelihood of the Greek sovereign and its central bank restricting nonsovereign access to foreign exchange needed for debt service. Contrary to the current case, the euro would in this scenario be a foreign currency, and the Bank of Greece would no longer be part of the European System of Central Banks. Under our criteria, the T&C assessment can be at most three notches above the sovereign foreign currency rating. In most reasonable scenarios, Greek-domiciled holders of euros would likely continue to face no restrictions in converting euros to dollars, Swiss francs, or other foreign currencies, the issue addressed by the current T&C assessment.
The outlook is negative. While no exact date has been announced to initiate Greece's debt restructuring, we understand that it will commence in September 2011 at the earliest. Upon the announcement of the implementation of the restructuring, a downgrade to 'SD' (selective default) would likely occur. Should the exchange/rollover be initiated, Standard & Poor's would expect to revise the rating on the specific obligation to 'D' (default) even if only a portion of the rated bonds is subject to the exchange offer. We would also likely revise the sovereign credit rating (the issuer credit rating) to 'SD'. On conclusion of the exchange and/or bond buybacks, we would likely raise the sovereign credit rating on Greece to a level commensurate with our forward-looking opinion on the likelihood of future defaults given Greece's adjusted debt profile. If the exchange involves multiple separate transactions over several weeks or months, we would assign our 'SD' sovereign credit rating to Greece on completion of the first repurchase. Subsequently, all other things being equal, we would likely raise our sovereign credit rating as early as a few days after completion of the first repurchase. In our opinion, the likelihood of a future default on the new securities is likely to remain high. We anticipate that we would assign a low-speculative-grade rating to Greece, given our view that Greece will likely continue to be burdened by high debt to GDP of just under 130% of GDP at end-2011 and uncertain growth prospects even after the debt restructuring is concluded. Conversely, if the terms of the transactions do not result in a default under our criteria, and the Greek government complies with the revised EU/IMF program, our ratings on Greece could stabilize at the current 'CC' levels, even taking into account the risk of a debt restructuring in the form of a principal haircut by 2013.
Related Criteria And Research
- Special Report: Midyear Global Financial Institutions Outlook: Increased Regulation Amid An Uneven Recovery, Aug. 1, 2011
- Debt Rollover Proposal Could Result In A Selective Default For Greece, July 4, 2011
- Credit FAQ: When Would A "Reprofiling" Of Sovereign Debt Constitute A Default?, June 3, 2011
- Hellenic Republic, May 24, 2011
- Ratings On Greece Lowered To 'B/C' From 'BB-/B' On Rising Rescheduling Risk; CreditWatch Negative Maintained, May 9, 2011
- Standard & Poor's Noninvestment Grade Sovereign Debt Recovery Ratings: 2011 Update, March 29, 2011
- Rating Implications Of Exchange Offers And Similar Restructurings, Update, May 12, 2009
- How Standard & Poor's Uses Its 'CCC' Rating, Dec. 12, 2008
- Sovereign Credit Ratings: A Primer, May 29, 2008
- Introduction Of Sovereign Recovery Ratings, June 14, 2007
Downgraded; Ratings Affirmed To From Hellenic Republic Sovereign Credit Rating CC/Negative/C CCC/Negative/C Senior Unsecured CC CCC Recover Rating 4 4 Transfer & Convertibility Assessment AAA Commercial Paper C
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009.
|Additional Contact:||Sovereign Ratings;|
|Sovereign Credit Ratings:||David T Beers, Managing Director, London (44) 20-7176-7101;|
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.
S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.
S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.
Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use the data or information other than as provided herein, contact Client Services, 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) 212-438-7280 or by e-mail to: firstname.lastname@example.org.